/dcf-valuation

Cosa fa. Calcola il valore intrinseco con un modello DCF.

Quando usarlo. Per una valutazione fondata sui flussi di cassa.

Argomenti. TICKER

Esempio. /dcf-valuation AAPL

Cosa restituisce. Ipotesi (crescita, WACC, terminale), scenari bear/base/bull e barra del fair value.

Come funziona

Quando lanci /dcf-valuation, Dexter non esegue codice fisso: invia all’AI la prompt qui sotto — il segnaposto {arg} viene sostituito con ciò che scrivi dopo il comando — e l’agente la esegue chiamando da sé gli strumenti necessari. Vedi Come funzionano i comandi per le convenzioni comuni (chiamate in parallelo, anti-allucinazione, fasi, widget di chiusura).

Strumenti che può usare: skill, render_value_range, show_ticker_link, get_sec_financials.

Flusso/visualizzazione: chiude con la barra del fair value (render_value_range) e i pulsanti di dettaglio (show_ticker_link); delega a una skill dedicata (skill).

Prompt completa

È la prompt esatta inviata all’AI quando usi il comando (sostituendo {arg}).

Calculate the intrinsic value of {arg} via a rigorous DCF model.

Call `skill` with name="dcf-valuation" and query="{arg}", then produce the DCF analysis following the skill's instructions — do NOT add meta-commentary or re-plan.

Output rules (the terminal renders plain Markdown):
- NO HTML tags and NO LaTeX/$...$ math. Write every formula as plain text, e.g. "Ke = Rf + β×ERP = 4.45% + 1.10×5.0% = 9.95%".
- This is a VALUATION command — do NOT call render_price_chart (that's for price-trend analysis). The bar is the ONLY visual widget here.
- The bar is the CLOSING element: write the COMPLETE analysis FIRST — projection/scenario tables, the recommendation, AND the key assumptions — and ONLY THEN, as the very LAST action, call render_value_range (low=Bear, base=probability-weighted/central fair value, high=Bull, current price, method="DCF", caption e.g. "Fair value $15.05–$33.22, central $22.32 → HOLD vs $21.55") TOGETHER WITH show_ticker_link for {arg} in the SAME step. They render the bar and the detail buttons and END your turn: do NOT introduce them with a sentence and write NOTHING after these calls. Calling the bar mid-report truncates your answer.

The following are requirements the skill must satisfy — pass them as context if needed, but do NOT execute them yourself after the skill completes:

## Mandatory Requirements for the Skill

### Revenue Projection
- Decompose revenue into drivers (price × volume × mix), NOT a single CAGR.
- Model 5-year explicit forecast + terminal value.

### FCF Calculation
- UFCF = EBIT × (1 - tax rate) + D&A - CapEx - ΔNWC. Show each component.
- Base projections on 3+ years of historical data from the tools.
- Use get_sec_financials for official GAAP figures. Call in parallel: revenue (metric=revenue, period=annual, limit=7), operating_income (metric=operating_income), operating_cash_flow (metric=operating_cash_flow, period=annual, limit=7), capex (metric=capex, period=annual, limit=7), total_assets (metric=total_assets), depreciation (metric=depreciation, period=annual, limit=3), interest_expense (metric=interest_expense, period=annual, limit=1), income_tax_expense (metric=income_tax_expense, period=annual, limit=3). FCF = operating_cash_flow − capex (already GAAP, preferred to EBIT-based estimate). These supersede DB data when longer history is needed or figures diverge.

### WACC
- Cost of equity via CAPM: Rf + β × ERP (use 10Y Treasury for Rf, Blume-adjusted beta).
- Cost of debt from interest expense / total debt, tax-affected.
- Use TARGET capital structure (industry average), not current.

### Terminal Value
- Gordon Growth Model with perpetual growth ≤ long-run GDP (2-3%).
- Cross-check with exit EV/EBITDA multiple vs peer medians. Reconcile differences.

### Sensitivity Analysis (MANDATORY)
- 5×5 table: WACC (rows) vs terminal growth rate (columns). Show intrinsic value per cell.
- 5×5 table: WACC vs exit multiple.
- Mark each cell with a plain-text symbol — ✅ undervalued vs current price, ⚠️ roughly fair, ❌ overvalued. No color, no HTML (the terminal renders plain Markdown).

### Scenarios
- Bear / Base / Bull with explicit assumption changes and resulting values.
- State probability weights. Compute probability-weighted fair value.

### Output
| Assumption | Bear | Base | Bull |
|------------|------|------|------|
[revenue growth, margins, WACC, terminal growth]

| Scenario | Intrinsic Value | Upside/Downside |
|----------|----------------|-----------------|

**Fair Value Range:** $X–$Y
**Recommendation:** BUY (if >20% upside) / HOLD (0–20%) / SELL (below current)
State all critical assumptions clearly. Flag the assumption that would invalidate the thesis if wrong.